Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

October, Saturday 29th | 8:30-10:30hs

Contributed Session CS26

Room 7

 
Chair: Michael Kumhof, International Monetary Fund
 
 

 

The Long-Term Effects of Hyperinflation on Monetary Institutions and Outcomes

 

 

 

Session: Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

 

 

Presenter

Federico Guerrero, University of Nevada

 

 

Author(s)

Federico Guerrero, University of Nevada

 

 

 

 

Do countries that have had hyperinflation display lower cross-sectional inflation rates in the aftermath of hyperinflation? There has been abundant speculation but very little research on this topic. This paper shows that hyperinflations do have a significant long-term effect on subsequent inflation outcomes: countries that suffered hyperinflation tend to display rates of inflation that are at least 5 percentage points below the cross-sectional average.

 

 

  Download this paper in PDF

 

 
 
 
 

 

Money and Prices

 

 

 

Session: Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

 

 

Presenter

Rómulo Chumacero, Universidad de Chile and Banco Central de Chile

 

 

Author(s)

Rómulo Chumacero, Universidad de Chile and Banco Central de Chile

Jorge Herman, Universidad de Chile

 

 

 

 

This paper documents a robust stylized facts in the relationship between money growth and inflation in Chile: inflation causes (precedes) money growth and not the other way around. This result does not depend on the sample period considered, the choice of monetary aggregate, the characterization of conditional second moments, or the introduction of inflation targets. A simple theoretical model is presented to motivate why inflation and money growth are nor necessarily related.

 

 

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Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence

 

 

 

Session: Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

 

 

Presenter

Francisco Vazquez, International Monetary Fund

Luis Jacome, International Monetary Fund

 

 

Author(s)

Francisco Vazquez, International Monetary Fund

Luis Jacome, International Monetary Fund

 

 

 

 

This paper reviews central bank legislation in 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 1990s. Using panel regressions, it finds a negative relationship between legal central bank independence (CBI) and inflation, using three alternative measures of CBI and after controlling for relevant macro variables. The result is robust to the inclusion of a broader indicator of structural reforms. The paper fails, however, to find a causal relationship running from CBI to inflation.

 

 

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Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing

 

 

 

Session: Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

 

 

Presenter

Marco Bonomo, Fundação Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro

 

 

Author(s)

Marco Bonomo, Fundação Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro

Carlos Carvalho, Princeton University

 

 

 

 

his paper examines the output effects of monetary disinflation in a model with endogenous time-dependent pricing rules and imperfect credibility of the disinflation policy. We find that these features interact to generate an additional effect on top of the ones obtained with either endogenous time-dependent rules (Bonomo and Carvalho, 2003) or imperfect credibility (Ball, 1995) in isolation. This results in higher output costs of monetary disinflation.

 

 

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