Dollarization, Pass-Through and Balance Sheets

October, Saturday 29th | 8:30-10:30hs

Contributed Session CS29

Room 34

 
Chair: Eduardo Fernandez Arias, Inter-American Development Bank
 
 

 

Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies

 

 

 

Session: Dollarization, Pass-Through and Balance Sheets

 

 

Presenter

Javier Gomez Biscarri, IESE, Universidad de Navarra

 

 

Author(s)

Javier Gomez Biscarri, IESE, Universidad de Navarra

Luis Carranza, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú and Universidad de Navarra

Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez, Universidad de Navarra

 

 

 

 

We use a sample of emerging markets with different degrees of dollarization and find that the pass-through in highly dollarized economies is higher but also more asymmetric than in less dollarized ones: we define asymmetric pass-through as the presence of a negative pass-through coefficient during economic downturns. This asymmetry stems from the negative balance-sheet effect that dominates the competition effect of real exchange rate depreciations.

 

 

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Real Exchange Rates, Dollarization and Industrial Employment in Latin America

 

 

 

Session: Dollarization, Pass-Through and Balance Sheets

 

 

Presenter

José Manuel Montero, Banco de España

 

 

Author(s)

José Manuel Montero, Banco de España

Arturo Galindo, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia

Alejandro Izquierdo, Inter-American Development Bank

 

 

 

 

We use a panel dataset on industrial employment, trade and liability dollarization for 9 Latin American countries in order to test whether real exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on employment and whether it varies with the degree of dollarization. Our evidence supports that real depreciations have a positive effect on employment growth, but it is reversed as dollarization increases. For high levels of dollarization, the overall impact of real depreciations can be negative.

 

 

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Pass-Through to Import Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries

 

 

 

Session: Dollarization, Pass-Through and Balance Sheets

 

 

Presenter

Miguel Fuentes, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

 

 

Author(s)

Miguel Fuentes, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

 

 

Sponsor

The Banco Central de Chile Scholarship

 

 

 

 

In this paper I study the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes to the price of imported goods in developing countries. The results indicate that 75% of changes in the exchange rate are passed-through to the domestic currency price of imported goods within one quarter. Complete pass-through is attained within one year. There is no evidence that exchange rate pass-through has declined over time.

 

 

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Financial Dollarization and Dedollarization

 

 

 

Session: Dollarization, Pass-Through and Balance Sheets

 

 

Presenter

Eduardo Fernández-Arias, Inter-American Development Bank

 

 

Author(s)

Eduardo Fernández-Arias, Inter-American Development Bank

 

 

 

 

Financial dollarization is a major problem in many Latin American countries concerning systemic financial fragility; blunt dedollarization measures simply repressing dollarization may easily fail to solve fragility, at best fostering risky short-term debt and at worst provoking massive financial disintermediation and crisis. This paper analyzes the sources of liability dollarization and identifies the failures leading to excess that call for policy intervention in a portfolio framework.

 

 

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Financial Fragility in Emerging Market Countries: Firm Balance Sheets and the Productive Structure

 

 

 

Session: Dollarization, Pass-Through and Balance Sheets

 

 

Presenter

Yannick Kalantzis, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques and Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées

 

 

Author(s)

Yannick Kalantzis, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques and Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées

 

 

 

 

We build an overlapping generation model of a two-sector small open economy. Because firms are subject to a borrowing constraint and there is a currency mismatch in the non-tradable sector, multiple equilibria may arise at a given point in time. We show that, under certain conditions, the evolution of the productive structure and of the non-tradable sector's balance sheets along an equilibrium path eventually leads to a financially fragile state with possible balance of payments crises.

 

 

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