Olesia Kozlova

Assistant Professor, Department Chair

  • Department: Economics
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Olesia Kozlova obtained a PhD in Economics as well as Cognate in College Teaching in the spring of 2014 at the University of New Hampshire. Her thesis “Imperfect Knowledge and Forward-Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: Does Risk Matter?”, advised by Michael. D. Goldberg, is primarily dedicated to analyzing currency risk and excess returns in foreign exchange markets. In particular, her work focuses on one of the core puzzles in financial economics, the so-called “forward-premium anomaly”. Kozlova’s research examines the implications of imperfect knowledge and contingent change in exchange-rate relationships for uncovering evidence of a time-varying risk premium in a large set of developed and developing countries.  The innovation of the thesis is in using a new Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) model of risk that jettisons the standard notion of rationality to account for empirical regularities in the data across both groups of countries. More recently Olesia has carried out research on the policy implications of IKE, where she explores the efficacy of central bank interventions on limiting persistence of exchange rate fluctuations.

Previously, Kozlova received M.A. in Economics from UNH in 2009, and B.S. in International Economics from the National Technical University of Ukraine in 2008. She also studied the course on Cointegrated VAR methodology and applications with Katarina Juselius and Soren Johansen at the University of Copenhagen. Olesia is also a research associate at the Global Center for Political Finance and junior research associate at the INET Program on IKE, the new economics foundation by INET, a US-based think tank.

The applied dimension of her research guides her teaching as well. In the classroom, Kozlova asks students to apply theoretical concepts they learn through specific current event case-studies and data, and encourages them to respond to important world issues, while emphasizing the practical application and policy relevance of these ideas.


Ph.D. in Economics, with Cognate in College Teaching, 2014

M.A. in Economics, University of New Hampshire, 2009

B.S. in Economics, National Technical University of Ukraine, 2008



  • “Cross-Country Differences in the Persistence of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Microstructure Approach” with R. Frydman and M.D. Goldberg (September 2013)
  • “Forward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries” with R. Frydman and M.D. Goldberg (April 2013), prepared for INET’s 4th plenary conference on “Changing of the Guard,” Hong Kong, China, April 4-6, 2013.
  • “The Forward Discount Anomaly: Imperfect Knowledge, Rationality, and Risk” with R. Frydman and M. D. Goldberg (August 2013)
  • “Does the Country of Origin Matter: FDI in the EU” with B.T. Elmslie and T. Ford (April 2012)

    “Uncovering Differences in the Persistence of Exchange Rate Fluctuations across Industrial and Emerging Currency Markets: Cointegrated VAR Approach” (August 2012).


Research Areas

International Finance and Trade, Macroeconomics, Financial Markets and Policy, Econometrics